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	<title>Tim Xu &#187; obama</title>
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	<description>idealist. intellectual. dreamer. thinker. creator.</description>
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		<title>Media frenzy</title>
		<link>http://www.timxu.com/2008/07/media-frenzy/</link>
		<comments>http://www.timxu.com/2008/07/media-frenzy/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 23 Jul 2008 03:55:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Tim Xu</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[politics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[mccain]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[media]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[obama]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[Barack Obama&#8217;s somewhere in the Middle East, taking with him most of the national media. Meanwhile, John McCain lands in New Hampshire for a campaign event and one reporter shows up to meet him. The McCain campaign, in a typical GOP-style response, begins slinging the mud, criticizing Obama&#8217;s inexperience and naiveté concerning foreign affairs. Of [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p style="text-align: left;"><a href="http://blogs.reuters.com/trail08/files/2008/07/rtr20fea.jpg"><img class="alignleft" style="width: 200px; height: 240px;" src="http://blogs.reuters.com/trail08/files/2008/07/rtr20fea.jpg" alt="Obama in Jordan. Reuters Photo." /></a> Barack Obama&#8217;s somewhere in the Middle East, taking with him most of the national media. Meanwhile, John McCain lands in New Hampshire for a campaign event and <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/mccain-struggles-to-make-himself-heard-above-chorus-of-approval-for-rival-874870.html">one reporter</a> shows up to meet him. The McCain campaign, in a typical GOP-style response, begins slinging the mud, criticizing Obama&#8217;s inexperience and naiveté concerning foreign affairs. Of course, they ignore Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki&#8217;s <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/meast/07/22/obama.mideast/">recent </a> endorsement of Obama&#8217;s withdrawal plan, as well as McCain&#8217;s own <a href="http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/07/21/1211760.aspx">gaffe</a> concerning the terrible struggle along the non-existent border between Iraq and Pakistan. However, aside from McCain&#8217;s own shortcomings, why is the media seemingly obsessed with Obama? Is it because he is the frontrunner in this very young race? Is it because the media&#8217;s liberal bent has become full-blown bias? Or is it simply because such a journey for the presumptive Democratic nominee will be a ratings bonanza?</p>
<p>It may be all of those, or none of those. However, it is possible to look deeper and extract a more sinister reason behind this unprecedented media explosion. A look at election projection blog <a href="http://www.fivethirtyeight.com">five-thirty-eight&#8217;s</a> data reveals that Obama is in line for a modest victory, with relatively few states in the mix. A further look reveals that many of those states, including Ohio, Colorado, Nevada, Virginia, New Mexico, and Iowa, were states that President Bush carried in 2004. Of the six states listed as &#8220;tipping point&#8221; states with a percentage above 10%, only one went to Senator Kerry – Michigan – which has 17 electoral votes. The five Bush carried combine for 39. If those were the only states that switched sides in November, Obama would win 273-264.</p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><img class="aligncenter" src="http://www.timxu.com/images/538.jpg" alt="538 chart" /></p>
<p>Of course, several other Bush states are beginning to lean towards Obama, including Virginia and Iowa. Michigan remains the only Kerry state with a significant chance of voting Republican. With the youth of the campaign in mind, it appears likely that Obama is a lock for the Presidency in November. At that thought, the media <em>panicked.</em></p>
<p style="text-align: left;">Anyone who witnessed the lengthy Democratic campaign knows that the media drove themselves bananas hyping the race, switching sides and playing all the tricks in the hand to extend the race. They reaped the benefits with each passing week with ratings through the roof. Naturally, they want the general election campaign in the fall to be the same. However, Obama has taken the lead firmly and has refused to make a mistake. McCain has made plenty, but the media has ignored them. They want to bring Obama down a notch, to give McCain the chance to draw even, to make the race more exciting, to rake in more cash. This offers an explanation as to why all three major news networks and their anchors have packed up and traveled halfway around the world to accompany a presumptive nominee. They want to apply pressure on him, and then be there when he makes that critical misstep.</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">By focusing the lens of every major evening news program on him, by drawing the attention of the world onto this one man, they hope to put unnecessary pressure upon Obama&#8217;s shoulders. Obama must calculate every move he makes, every word he says, because at any given moment, the world is watching. They then hope that he cracks under this pressure, makes a McCain-like gaffe, and then jump on it. With this level of attention, a misstep by Obama would make the front page of every major newspaper in America. To the eyes of the public, the air of inevitability surrounding the candidate will disappear. McCain will be back in the public eye. The race will appear close again. The media can then go on repeating the same &#8220;historic&#8221; story ad infinitum and hyping up the general election, earning millions and millions of dollars in the process. Tearing down Obama would be the first step to levelling the field for McCain and the ailing GOP.</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">While the reasons for the media&#8217;s absolute frenzy surrounding Obama&#8217;s trip overseas may never be known, and certainly may be as simple as a ratings opportunity, it is clear that McCain is running out of time to stay relevant. If Obama emerges from this trip unscathed, he will have gotten a tremendous boost, in terms of media exposure, for free. Obama&#8217;s fund-raising and online presence far outstrips McCain&#8217;s, and the political mood is already straying far away from the GOP. I, for one, would rather see Obama elected by a modest margin, but I admit that it is unlikely to happen. November can&#8217;t come soon enough.</p>
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